- Title:
-
Householder Bushfire Preparation: Decision making and the implications for risk communication
- Date:
- September 2008
- Organisations
- BCRC
- Authors:
- A. Cottrell, T. Prior, D. Paton
- Location:
- Australia, Australia
Overview
The International Bushfire Research Conference 2008 - incorporating The 15th annual AFAC Conference, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
How the individual or family unit perceives risk and reacts to a threat such as a bushfire is complex, dependent on many factors, and poorly understood.
Understanding the reasoning behind the decisions people make when the outcome is uncertain requires knowledge of the context in which these decisions must be made. Accordingly, developing understandable and meaningful risk communication information must address individual differences and provide the tools or skills needed by the individual/family unit or community to better prepare given their particular circumstances.
This research aimed to improve the bushfire risk communication process by examining and modelling the most important factors that influence the decision to prepare for bushfire. A survey exploring preparedness and factors known to influence preparedness was distributed to households at risk of bushfire in Hobart, Tasmania in the lead up to the bushfire seasons of 2006 (1500) and 2007 (1297).
Ninteen semi-structured interviews were conducted in 2006 with consenting survey respondents to explore their preparedness reasoning. Qualitative analyses of these interviews (QSR NVivo 7) yielded a theoretical model representing a generalised process householders employ in reaching a decision to prepare or not. Confirmatory structural equation modelling on the theoretical model using the 2006 survey data (n=482) showed a strong fit to the model (x2 =8.5, df=10, p=0.578, RMSEA=0.001, CFI=1.000). Factors that increased the likelihood of choosing to prepare included 'Positive Outcome Expectancy', 'Sense of Community', 'Collective Problem Solving' and 'Intention to Prepare'. 'Negative Outcome Expectancy' and 'Preparedness Inhibitors', such as a lack of time or money reduced the likelihood that householders would prepare for bushfire. The 2007survey data (n=378) supported this model (x2=10.2, df=6, p=0.116, RMSEA=0.043, CFI=0.99).
These results and their implications for bushfire risk communication in Australia are explored in this presentation.
