- Title:
-
How Worst Case Scenarios are Considered by Bushfire Fighters: An interview study
- Date:
- September 2008
- Organisations
- BCRC
- Authors:
- Claire Johnson, Geoff Cumming & Mary Omodei
- Location:
- Australia, VIC, Australia
Overview
The International Bushfire Research Conference 2008 - incorporating The 15th annual AFAC Conference, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
In bushfire incident control, being able to better consider worst case scenarios may be a way of improving decisions and outcomes. Although they have severe consequences, worst case scenarios can be overlooked because they are low-probability events.
Two major inquiries into recent Australian bushfire fatalities have reported that failure to consider the worst case scenarios may have contributed to the tragic outcomes. Little previous research has developed the concept of worst case scenarios or suggested how they might be included in risk assessment, an important aspect of bushfire incident management.
A post-incident interview study was conducted using the Human Factors Interview Protocol with firefighters in decision making roles. Interview analysis indicated that worst case scenarios are indeed considered during decision making at fire incidents; however there were considerable differences in the focus of worst case scenarios reported by people holding different positions in the command structure.
The findings of this study illuminate how worst case scenarios are currently being considered in decision making at fire incidents. To extend these findings, experienced fire managers will be interviewed about past major and problematic incidents in an attempt to determine how worst case scenarios could further enhance incident management and how training can help to extend these skills.
