- Title:
-
Estimating Risks from Fire Following Earthquake
- Date:
- June 2002
- Organisations
- NZFS
- Authors:
- Geoff Thomas, Delwyn Lloydd
- Location:
- New Zealand, New Zealand
Overview
Estimating Risks from Fire Following Earthquake uses A GIS (Geographic Information System) model containing property and valuation data as a useful platform for modelling the spread of post-earthquake fire in the urban setting.
Fire is a common consequence of large earthquakes. Sometimes, because fire suppression activities can be compromised after large earthquakes, it develops into conflagration that in turn leads to very serious loss of life and property
The report describes two approaches, one static and one dynamic:
- The static approach relies on a simple buffering technique to define potential "burn-zones" that are sampled randomly to give estimates of losses. From repeated sampling we are able to assess the probability of exceedance of various levels of loss as a function of the number of ignitions and the spacing between buildings.
- The dynamic approach uses a cellular automaton technique for determining both the rate and extent of fire spread in response to a wide range of factors including wind, radiation, sparking, branding, and individual separations of buildings. It is more realistic than the simple model but runs much more slowly.
